North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola turns around to surge upward

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures finished higher on Wednesday, after starting the session to the downside.

A trader said a lack of new demand was pushing prices lower earlier in the day, but by the afternoon that was overwhelmed by support from comparable oils.

Spillover from significant upswings in global crude oil prices pushed up Chicago soybeans and soyoil, as well as Malaysian palm oil. Oilseed gains were somewhat tempered by losses in European rapeseed and Chicago soymeal.

Two systems bringing rain will further delay spring planting, with one slowing progress in northern Alberta. The other, another Colorado Low, will bring rain to eastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Meanwhile crops in southern Alberta are in need of precipitation to help them get off to a decent start.

The Canadian dollar was higher at mid-afternoon, with the loonie at 77.10 U.S. cents, compared to Tuesday’s close of 76.85.

There were 15,670 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 18,639 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 8,442 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Jul 1,152.30 up 16.80
Nov 1,089.50 up 12.90
Jan 1,091.90 up 12.10
Mar 1,089.40 up 11.70

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were stronger on Wednesday, due sharp to increases in global crude oil prices.

The United States Department of Agriculture is set to release its monthly supply and demand estimates tomorrow at 11 am CDT. The average trade guess places U.S. soybean production for 2022/23 at 125.55 million tonnes, four per cent more than in 2021/22.

The European Union said its 2021/22 soybean imports, as of May 8, totaled 12.07 million tonnes. That’s down 6.9 per cent from the same time last year. Soymeal imports have dropped 6.3 per cent at 13.93 million tonnes.

Refinitiv Research estimated rapeseed production in Ukraine for 2022/23 to be 2.6 million tonnes, down 13.8 per cent from last year.

CORN futures were also stronger on Wednesday, benefitting from spillover from soybeans and wheat.

Reports indicated that good planting progress has been made so far this week throughout much of the U.S. Corn Belt.
However, corn production is expected to recede 2.3 per cent from last year at 375.25 million tonnes in 2022/23.

For the week ended May 6, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported ethanol production increased 2.3 per cent at 991,000 barrels per day. Ethanol stocks rose by almost 1.1 per cent at 24.14 million barrels.

The seven-day forecast for Argentina and central Brazil has called for no rain, posing a threat to each country’s corn crop.

France estimated planted acres for its 2022/23 corn crop to fall 5.9 per cent at about 3.61 million. The high cost of fertilizer was said to be reason for the decline.

WHEAT futures jumped on Wednesday, with a surge in Minneapolis far outpacing gains in Chicago and Kansas City.

Total U.S. wheat production is projection to increase 8.8 per cent in 2022/23 at 48.74 million tonnes.

While wet conditions on parts of the U.S. Northern Plains delay spring planting, drought across much of the Southern Plains continued to pose a challenge to crops.

Refinitiv projected Ukraine’s wheat production for 2022/23 at 23.4 million tonnes, 29.1 per cent less than last year.

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