Monsoon rainfall deficit slows wheat sowing in India

Wheat sowing in India is lagging behind last year’s pace amid deficient monsoon rainfall and concerns over irrigation water availability. As of October 23, wheat had been sown on 11 thsd ha, compared with 27 thsd ha on the same date last year, according to data from the country’s Ministry of Agriculture.

The southwest monsoon, which lasted from June to September, delivered 13% less rainfall than normal. As a result, residual soil moisture is lower at the start of the rabi season, while water levels in reservoirs and canals are also below normal. Wheat is generally sown in India in October-November and harvested in March-April.

The states of Punjab and Rajasthan are particularly vulnerable, with rainfall deficits of 38% and 22%, respectively. Reservoir storage in both states was also below normal at the end of September. Together, they account for around 31% of India’s wheat area, meaning irrigation constraints could significantly affect sowing progress.

Moisture shortages also pose risks to rainfed and poorly irrigated areas in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Bundelkhand and parts of central India. Farmers in these regions have fewer options to compensate for a lack of monsoon moisture through irrigation, potentially delaying sowing, reducing planted area and affecting yields.

The Ministry of Agriculture has set a wheat production target of 121 mln tons for the 2026/27 crop year, following a record output of 120.7 mln tons in the previous year. As of October 23, the total area sown to rabi crops stood at 1.802 mln ha, compared with 2.826 mln ha a year earlier. Since wheat sowing has only begun in a few states, the ultimate impact of weather conditions on planted area and production remains uncertain.

Tags: India