Mexico heads for record corn imports as domestic output declines

Mexico could import a record 24.8 mln tons of corn in 2026, while domestic production is projected at just 23.5 mln tons. As a result, imports may exceed the country’s own crop, further increasing its reliance on foreign supplies.

Domestic corn consumption is estimated at 48.2 mln tons, meaning local production will cover less than half of demand. By comparison, Mexico produced 27.7 mln tons of corn in 2017 against consumption of 40.3 mln tons, with self-sufficiency at around 69%.

The main reason for the production decline is drought in Sinaloa, the country’s key white corn-producing state. Output there fell from 6.8 mln tons to 1.8 mln tons due to water shortages, lower planted area and weaker yields.

High costs for fertilizers, seeds and diesel, along with limited access to financing and crop insurance, are adding further pressure. Mexico’s average corn yield is around 3.8 t/ha, well below levels in major producing countries.

Imports are already running at a record pace. In January-July 2026, Mexico purchased 14.72 mln tons of corn, up 7.4% year-on-year. The widening supply gap is increasing the country’s dependence on imported grain, primarily from the United States.

Tags: corn, imports, Mexico