MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, September 29 – October 6

UkrAgroConsult shares key highlights from Weekly Grain & Oilseed Reports (September 29 – October 6, 2025).

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Black Sea & Danube region:

• Black Sea & Danube: Trend toward shifting to more winter crops area
• For SE Europe exporters competition from Black Sea stays sharp; buyers have the leverage
• Poland: record stocks and need for growing exports
• Romania is set up for record wheat and barley exports in 2025/26
• Black Sea & Danube oilseeds market: low yields, constrained exports, hopes for trade recovery
• October in Bulgaria and Romania: Can floods after drought make logistics costs bullish?
• Rapeseed record yields in Poland

Ukraine:

• Ukraine soybeans and rapeseed exports will recover soon
• Nobody can ignore tariffs, but the tariffs will not ignore anybody margin. Keep a Plan B ready
• Soybean yields exceeded last year’s figures, while sunflower yields remained below 2 mt/ha
• Exporter demand supported wheat prices, milling/feed spread remaining at $16–$17/mt
• The corn harvest lags behind last year’s, rain generate extra costs for drying
• Ukrainian barley is losing competitiveness, but POC prices remain stable
• Sunflower oil is demanded strongly by key importers
• Crush industry consolidation in Ukraine. UkrAgroConsult views further M&A in the next 2-4 years.
• Ukraine: more than 8 M mt of SFS harvested

Analytical articles are also available in the AgriSupp platform.

Tags: Ukraine, Black Sea region, China, wheat, sunflower oil, sunseed, harvest, rapeseed, corn, crop forecast, grain, Danube region, Romania, price, EU, Oilseed, soybean