Lower US soybean production and stock forecasts will support prices

The USDA’s November report showed lower forecasts for US and global soybean production and stocks for the 2025/26 season, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance and limiting the potential for price declines, Sun Sirs reports. US soybean production is estimated at 4.253 billion bushels—48 million bushels below the September forecast and 2.8% below last year’s level.

The lower production figures and stockpiles provide fundamental support for the market. The USDA data fell below the analyst consensus forecast (4.266 billion bushels), strengthening bullish sentiment. Reduced supply creates direct pressure for higher spot prices.

The soybean oil market is experiencing a cost pass-through effect—rising raw material prices are increasing processing costs. With declining supply, robust demand from the food industry could lead to a shortage.

According to USDA analysts, the soybean meal market is also receiving price support due to rising soybean processing costs. Declining global inventories is increasing pressure on the meal market, especially while feed demand remains stable. Higher raw material costs are being passed on to final product prices, creating a persistent bullish trend.

According to the International Grains Council (IGC), global soybean consumption will set a new record in the 2025/2026 season, reaching approximately 430 million tonnes. This growth is primarily due to increased demand for meat products and, consequently, for high-protein feed, particularly in Asia. However, despite high harvests, global soybean supply remains subdued. Demand continues to outpace production, which will lead to a reduction in global inventories for the first time in several years.

Tags: USA, prices, soybean