Poor soybean harvest to push India to increase soybean oil imports — USDA

India’s soybean production in 2026/27 could decline by 8% due to erratic monsoon rainfall and farmers shifting some acreage to cotton and corn, according to USDA. The crop is forecast at 9.6 mln tons, down from the previous estimate of 10.4 mln tons, with yields expected at around 0.91 t/ha.

Soybean planted area is forecast at 10.5 mln ha, 6% below USDA’s previous estimate of 11.2 mln ha. Irregular rainfall during the planting period disrupted fieldwork, particularly in Maharashtra, one of India’s major soybean-producing states. The adoption of high-yielding, disease-resistant varieties could partially offset the reduction in planted area.

With a smaller crop expected, soybean crushing could decline to 8.7 mln tons from the previous forecast of 9.3 mln tons. USDA expects India to compensate for tighter domestic supplies and the resulting reduction in vegetable oil production by increasing soybean oil imports.

At the same time, domestic soybean demand remains strong. Food use is increasing due to growing demand for tofu, soy milk and soy flour, while feed use could rise by 25% compared with the previous forecast. Poultry producers are increasing their use of soybean meal as more corn is diverted to ethanol production.

USDA forecasts India’s soybean imports at 500 thsd tons in 2026/27, compared with the previous estimate of 200 thsd tons. Benin, Niger and Togo remain key suppliers of non-GM soybeans to India, although expanding processing capacity in these countries could reduce the volumes available for export.

Tags: harvest, USDA, poor harvest, soybean, India, imports