Black Sea export disruptions return Australia to the centre of the global wheat market

Australia exported 1.99 mln tonnes of wheat, including durum, in July, up 33% from 1.50 mln tonnes in June. The increase is unusual for a period when new-crop wheat from the Northern Hemisphere is already entering the global market, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data.

Lachstock Consulting estimates that Australia is entering the new season with a large wheat crop. Production is forecast at 30.7 mln tonnes, with South Australia and Victoria potentially recording near-record crops. Such ample supply would normally put pressure on the market during harvest, but disruptions to Black Sea exports are forcing global buyers to seek alternative supplies.

Australian wheat exports are being supported by reduced shipments from Ukraine and Russia due to infrastructure damage and shipping difficulties in the Black and Azov seas. Lachstock estimates Russian wheat exports at around 2 mln tonnes in August, while September shipments could fall to just 1.8–2.3 mln tonnes, less than half last year’s level.

Against this backdrop, Australian exporters are gaining more opportunities to sell the new crop. Lachstock said interstate grain flows are increasing, container export opportunities are improving and protein spreads are widening. Domestic consumers, meanwhile, are well covered and have stepped back from the market, leaving exporters to play an increasingly important role.

According to ABS data, the Philippines was the largest buyer of Australian wheat in bulk in July at 542.6 thsd tonnes, followed by Indonesia at 275.8 thsd tonnes and South Korea at 198 thsd tonnes. Analysts warn, however, that a recovery in Russian and Ukrainian export logistics could quickly bring large volumes of cheaper wheat back to the global market and intensify competition.

Tags: Australia, export, wheat