Expana raises EU wheat export forecast as Black Sea shipments decline

Expana has raised its forecast for EU soft wheat exports in the 2026/27 season to 29.5 mln tons, up from 28.7 mln tons projected in August. Analysts linked the improved outlook for European exports to reduced grain shipments from the Black Sea region, prompting importers to seek alternative suppliers.

According to Expana, lower exports from Ukraine and Russia are generating additional demand for European wheat and barley on the global market. At the same time, large harvests in North Africa and the Middle East are partially limiting overall import demand. Expana also lowered its estimate for EU soft wheat exports in 2025/26 to 28.5 mln tons.

The EU soft wheat production forecast for 2026/27 was reduced by 0.7 mln tons to 126.1 mln tons, which is 10.5 mln tons below the previous season. The revision mainly reflects disappointing results in Germany, while harvest results in the Baltic countries have been more favorable. Barley production is forecast at 51.6 mln tons.

The outlook for corn is considerably weaker. Expana cut its EU corn production forecast from 49.1 mln to 46.2 mln tons, down 18.9% from 2025/26. If confirmed, this would be the EU’s smallest corn crop since 1992. The decline reflects hot and dry weather late in the crop development period, particularly in Germany, Italy and Central Europe.

With domestic production declining, EU corn imports in 2026/27 could rise by 15% to 22.9 mln tons, provided Ukrainian corn reaches the EU after the start of the new crop season. At the same time, EU corn consumption is forecast to fall to 51.2 mln tons from 55.6 mln tons a season earlier, as wheat and barley are expected to replace some corn in feed rations.

Tags: export, EU, Black Sea region, wheat, Expana