Lower Black Sea sunflower oil exports are not changing the balance of the global vegetable oil market

Declining sunflower oil exports from the Black Sea region are not reshaping the global vegetable oil market. Reduced supplies from Ukraine and higher Russian export prices are supporting sunflower and palm oil prices, while expanding global soybean oil supplies and lower crude oil prices are limiting gains across the vegetable oils complex.

The biggest impact comes from the sharp reduction in sunflower oil exports. Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports and oil extraction plants in the country’s south have nearly halted maritime exports, with shipments now relying mainly on Danube ports. As a result, Indian bid prices for sunflower oil increased by $15/ton over the past week to $1,470-1,475/ton CIF Mumbai, while Russian sunflower oil export prices rose by $15-20/ton to $1,370-1,380/ton FOB.

In Ukraine, bid prices for sunflower oil delivered to Danube ports are reported at $1,320-1,335/ton, although sunflower seed supplies remain extremely limited. Purchase prices for sunflower seed have declined to UAH 27,000-29,000/ton, as many processing plants have temporarily switched to rapeseed crushing.

The shortage of sunflower oil is being partly offset by rising palm oil exports from Malaysia. During the past week, Bursa Malaysia palm oil futures gained 1.1% to 4,695 ringgit/ton (about $1,148/ton). Palm oil remains more competitive than soybean oil in the Indian market, although its price advantage has gradually narrowed.

At the same time, record soybean oil exports from Argentina, increasing supplies from Brazil, and improved soybean crop prospects in the United States continue to weigh on the market. Lower crude oil prices are adding further pressure by reducing demand for biofuels. As a result, the global vegetable oil market remains balanced: the shortage of sunflower oil is supporting prices, but abundant soybean oil supplies are preventing a broader price rally.

Tags: sunflower oil, export, soybean oil, prices, India, palm oil, Ukraine, Russia