Lower mustard crop in Canada and Kazakhstan supports the market

The outlook for the new mustard crop in Canada and Kazakhstan has fallen short of earlier expectations. Harvesting in Canada has started with average yields that vary considerably by region, while a weaker-than-expected crop in Kazakhstan has already pushed prices higher.

Canada’s average mustard yield in 2026/27 is forecast at 0.87 t/ha, down 10% from the previous season. Hot weather in the weeks leading up to harvest may have negatively affected crops. Although planted area increased by almost 5% to 153 thsd ha, this is not expected to offset the decline in yields.

As a result, Canadian mustard production is forecast at 130 thsd tons, down from 140 thsd tons in 2025/26, a decrease of about 7%. Total supply is expected to fall to 283 thsd tons, while carry-over stocks could decline by 7% to 135 thsd tons. The export forecast remains unchanged at 95 thsd tons.

Market activity in Canada remains relatively subdued, with yellow mustard prices holding at CAD 0.36–0.37/lb for several weeks. In the first half of 2026, Canada exported $51.62 mln worth of mustard seed, down 13% year-on-year. Export value to Belgium fell by 48%, shipments to Japan by 31%, and those to the US by 5%.

Kazakhstan’s mustard crop has also fallen short of expectations, with a more pronounced impact on prices. Reduced availability has already lifted new-crop values, with yellow mustard offered at €820/t ($951/t) DAP Germany. Lower production in the two important suppliers is therefore providing support to the European mustard market.

Tags: Kazakhstan, EU, Canada, mustard