Losses in Rio Grande do Sul lead to a new cut in Brazilian soybean exports

Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to total 94.8 mln tons in 2024, 7% below the 101.863 mln estimated for 2023. The forecast is part of the Brazilian supply and demand framework, released by Safras & Mercado.

In the previous survey, released in April, the numbers were 96 mln tons for 2024 and 101.863 mln for 2023.

The production losses registered in Rio Grande do Sul due to the recent climate catastrophe were the main reason for the reduction in export expectations, as they also resulted in a cut in national production.

SAFRAS indicates the crushing of 54.3 mln tons in 2024 and 54.165 mln tons in 2023, representing stability between one season and another.

For the 2024 season, the total supply of soybeans is expected to decrease by 5%, reaching 155.296 mln tons. Total demand is projected by Safras at 152.1 mln tons, down 4% from the previous year. Therefore, ending stocks are expected to fall by 31%, from 4.641 to 3.196 mln tons.

Safras projects the soymeal production at 41.750 mln tons, unchanged from 2023. Exports are expected to fall 4% to 21.7 mln tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 18.6 mln, a decline of 6%. Stocks are expected to rise 99% to 2.916 mln tons.

Soyoil production must rise 1% to 10.960 mln tons. Brazil should export 1.3 mln tons, down 44% from the previous year. Domestic consumption is expected to rise from 8.650 mln to 9.650 mln tons. Use for biodiesel should increase 17% to 5.6 mln tons. The stocks are forecast to rise 26% to 535 thousand tons.

Tags: forecast, soymeal, soyoil, losses, exports, Brazil, estimate, soybeans, ending stocks, Production