Thailand’s sugar production may fall by at least 17%

Thailand’s sugar production in 2026/27 may decline by at least 17% due to dry weather conditions. According to Thai Sugar Millers Corp., output could fall below 10 mln tons, compared with 12 mln tons in the previous season.

The main concern is northeastern Thailand, which accounts for around 45% of the country’s sugar production. Rainfall there has been lower than in other regions this year, worsening prospects for the sugarcane crop.

Competition for planted area may add further pressure. Higher cassava prices could encourage some farmers to reduce sugarcane acreage in favor of the alternative crop.

Lower production in Thailand could tighten the global market, as the country is the world’s second-largest sugar exporter. Amid a strengthening El Niño and growing risks to Asian crops, New York sugar futures rose by more than 20% last month, the biggest monthly gain since 2010.

The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit of around 260 thsd tons in 2026/27. Supply risks also remain in India, where monsoon rainfall this season has been below normal.

Tags: weather conditions, sugar, Thailand, drought