Key export routes for Russian grain remain blocked

Russia has yet to fully restore operations at its key grain export infrastructure on the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Navigation through the Azov-Don Canal and Kerch Strait remains severely restricted, effectively preventing the ports of Azov, Rostov-on-Don and Taganrog from maintaining stable grain shipments. The Azov ports account for nearly 25% of Russia’s grain exports.

The situation deteriorated further following the August 12 strike on Novorossiysk, where operations at three key grain terminals — KSK, NZT and NKHP — were halted. Their combined capacity is estimated at around 26.1 mln tons per year, equivalent to roughly half of Russia’s wheat exports. As of August 18, full operations at the terminals have not resumed.

Export disruptions are already putting pressure on Russia’s domestic market. According to ProZerno, grain purchase prices have fallen by 20–25%. If Black Sea exports remain blocked for an extended period, Russia could fail to supply 30–35 mln tons of wheat to the global market, while its overall grain exports in 2026/27 could decline significantly.

Even a resumption of operations at Novorossiysk would not fully resolve the problem, as the loss of the Azov route cannot be quickly offset through alternative corridors. Baltic ports are the main alternative, but their capacity is insufficient to handle the volumes traditionally exported through Russia’s southern ports.

Despite mounting problems with export logistics, Russian authorities have so far shown no willingness to reach agreements on halting strikes on port and maritime infrastructure. If the current situation persists, it could further pressure domestic grain prices in Russia and reduce Russian grain supplies to the global market.

Tags: blocked, Azov Sea, Russia, export, grain, Black Sea, logistics, war