Kazakhstan’s grain market stagnates as export slowdown expected in May

Kazakhstan’s grain market continues to show weak trading activity, while exports of grains and oilseeds are expected to slow further in May. This was stated in the latest analytical report of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan covering the period from May 4 to May 10, 2026.

According to analyst Yevgeny Karabanov, the main factors behind the market stagnation are the new Tax Code regulations related to VAT refunds for exporters and the continued strengthening of the tenge against the US dollar. As a result, the gap between domestic and export prices keeps widening, leaving exporters with almost no margins.

On the domestic market, wheat purchases were mainly driven by processors. During the past week, prices for class 3 wheat with 23–25% and 25–26% gluten, as well as class 4 and class 5 wheat, increased by about 1 thsd tenge. The price growth was attributed to limited supply from farmers, who are holding grain while expecting higher prices.

Export activity remains weak across most destinations, especially toward Central Asian countries and China. Export wheat prices changed only slightly, with class 5 wheat rising by $1. Barley export prices remained unchanged, while feed flour export prices at the Kazakhstan-China border increased following higher domestic wheat prices.

The Grain Union of Kazakhstan expects export volumes of grains and oilseeds to decline further in May. Key reasons include seasonal market slowdown, tax-related challenges and the strengthening national currency, all of which continue to reduce the competitiveness of Kazakh grain on foreign markets.

Tags: Kazakhstan, export, wheat