Wheat, corn and soybeans gain on CBOT as weaker US crop conditions support prices

Prices for major agricultural commodities mostly moved higher on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on Monday, August 3. The market was supported by deteriorating U.S. crop conditions, while wheat prices in Europe also received support from lower EU production forecasts and tightening supplies. September SRW wheat futures rose to $239.20/ton (+1.84%), September corn climbed to $176.87/ton (+1.93%), and November soybean futures increased to $438.07/ton (+0.40%).

Wheat futures advanced across all three U.S. exchanges. According to the USDA, 86% of the U.S. winter wheat crop had been harvested as of August 2, matching the five-year average. Meanwhile, the share of the spring wheat crop rated in good-to-excellent condition improved to 55%. Additional support came from quarterly milling data, which showed that U.S. flour mills processed more than 222 mln bushels of wheat between April and June, almost unchanged from a year earlier.

Weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 335.3 thsd tons for the week ended July 30, with South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines among the largest destinations. However, cumulative wheat exports for the current marketing year remain 27% below the same period last season. The market also drew support from a South Korean tender seeking 50 thsd tons of U.S. wheat.

Corn futures also posted solid gains. Although 90% of the U.S. corn crop has reached the silking stage and 43% is at the dough stage, the share of the crop rated good-to-excellent declined by another two percentage points to 61%. Export demand remained strong, with weekly U.S. corn shipments reaching 1.89 mln tons and cumulative exports exceeding 77 mln tons, up 25% year-on-year. In Brazil, AgRural estimated that 69% of the second corn crop has been harvested, while StoneX raised its second-crop production forecast to 110.7 mln tons.

Soybean futures also ended the session higher. U.S. soybean crop ratings remained unchanged at 63% good-to-excellent, while crop development continues to run ahead of the historical average. The market was supported by large Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans after the USDA confirmed sales of 488 thsd tons of new-crop soybeans to China and another 136.15 thsd tons to unknown destinations. U.S. soybean crush reached 217.8 mln bushels in June, up 10.6% from a year earlier. StoneX also increased its forecast for Brazil’s soybean production to a record 183.1 mln tons.

In Europe, September milling wheat futures on Euronext (MATIF) rose to €225.75/ton ($260.24/ton), while December futures climbed to €232.25/ton. The rally was supported by the European Commission’s lower forecast for EU soft wheat production at 124.4 mln tons, a reduced export outlook of 29 mln tons, and the lowest projected ending stocks in three years. Low water levels on the Danube and Rhine rivers continue to disrupt grain logistics across Europe. Corn futures on MATIF were mixed, with the August contract edging lower while the November contract posted gains.

Tags: wheat, corn, prices, soybean