India’s rice production may see its biggest decline in nearly 20 years

India’s rice production in MY 2026/27 could fall by around 10 mln tons due to below-normal rainfall during the crop’s maturation period. Industry estimates suggest this would be the first production decline in a decade and the largest in nearly 20 years.

Compared with last year’s record crop of 154 mln tons, output could decline by about 6.5%. Since the start of the monsoon season, India has received 15% less rainfall than normal, while the deficit in some key rice-producing states has reached as much as 42%.

The area under summer-sown rice stood at 42.68 mln ha as of September 11, nearly 4% lower year on year. Summer-sown crops account for more than 80% of total production. Winter rice area may also decline due to below-normal water reserves in reservoirs.

Expectations of a smaller crop have already supported domestic rice prices, while export prices have risen to their highest level in more than a year. This could make Indian rice more expensive on the global market amid rising prices in other major exporting countries.

At the same time, large inventories should allow India to maintain strong exports without introducing new restrictions. As of September 1, state rice stocks, including unmilled paddy, stood at a record 59.6 mln tons, well above the government’s target of 10.3 mln tons for October 1.

Tags: Production, India, rice