IGC experts forecast a decline in world grain stocks to a 9-year low, despite the increase in production

In the October report, IGC experts lowered the forecast of global grain production (wheat and feed) in 2023/24 MY by 2 mln tonnes to 2292 mln tonnes, which is 27 mln tonnes higher than last year due to the increase in sorghum and corn harvest, which will compensate for the decline in wheat, barley and oats production.

The consumption forecast was left at a record level of 2305 million tons, which is 2% higher than last year, including an increase for feed, food and industrial use.

The forecast for world trade was lowered by 1 million tons to 409 million tons, which is 5% lower than in 2022/23 MY, due to a decrease in corn and sorghum supplies (including to China), despite an increase in wheat supplies.

Given the lower-than-expected beginning stocks and lower production forecasts, the estimate of global ending stocks in 2023/24 MY is lowered by 6 million tons to a 9-year low of 582 million tons, which is 2% lower than the previous season. The reason will be a significant reduction in wheat stocks in India and China.

It is expected that the world wheat production in 2023/24 MY will reach 784.9 mln tonnes (803.4 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY), which will be the second highest in history. Thus, compared to the September estimates, the forecast of wheat production in Russia was increased from 87.4 to 89 mln tonnes (95.4 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY), Ukraine – from 25.9 to 27.4 (26.3) mln tonnes, and the USA – from 47.2 to 49.3 (44.9) mln tonnes, while the forecast for Argentina was lowered from 16.6 to 15.6 (12.6) million tons, Australia – from 25.4 to 24.4 (39.7) million tons, and Kazakhstan – from 13 to 12.5 (16.4) million tons due to prolonged drought in summer and excessive rainfall in the fall.

The forecast for world wheat exports was increased from 195.9 to 196.6 (207.7) million tons, in particular for Russia – from 48.6 to 49.1 (48.2) million tons, Ukraine – from 12 to 12.5 (17.1) million tons, the US – from 19.1 to 19.6 (20.9) million tons, while the estimate for Argentina was reduced from 11.5 to 10.9 (4.5) million tons, Australia – from 19 to 18 (31.5) million tons and the EU – from 36.2 to 36.1 (35) million tons.

The forecast of world wheat stocks in 2023/24 MY was left at 262.6 mln tonnes compared to 281.5 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY.

Tags: IGC, wheat, crop forecast