Grain exports from Russia’s Black Sea ports could nearly come to a halt due to drone attacks

Russia’s grain exports via the Black Sea could nearly come to a complete halt in the near future due to Ukrainian drone attacks on commercial vessels and port infrastructure, according to a statement by the Russian Union of Grain Exporters and Producers.

The organization said that attacks, which intensified throughout July, have created a risk of a complete disruption of grain export routes in the Black Sea basin. Damage to port infrastructure and growing risks to commercial shipping could force shipowners to suspend calls at Russian ports.

Additional concerns emerged after a drone strike on the port of Taman. According to a Reuters agricultural market source, one of Russia’s major grain export terminals suffered significant damage in the attack.

The Union estimates that Russian wheat exports could decline by 30–35 mln tons during the current season. According to its calculations, this would represent roughly 15% of total global wheat trade.

The organization argues that alternative exporting countries would be unable to fully replace such volumes. Existing carry-over stocks and temporary increases in purchases from other suppliers may help importers avoid immediate shortages, but the situation could deteriorate rapidly if Russian exports remain disrupted for an extended period.

The Union also estimates that a prolonged disruption of Black Sea shipments could push FOB wheat prices to $340–370 per ton, with the potential to exceed $400 per ton. Such a scenario could trigger another wave of global food inflation and force some importing countries to reduce grain purchases.

According to the organization, the greatest risks would be faced by countries in the Middle East and Africa, which rely heavily on grain supplies from the Black Sea region. At the same time, Ukrainian agricultural associations have also warned that Russian strikes on the port infrastructure of Greater Odesa and commercial vessels are restricting Ukraine’s grain exports during the peak harvest season.

Tags: Russia, export, wheat