How the war with Iran affected global commodity prices

UkrAgroConsult

Since the outbreak of hostilities between the United States, Israel, and Iran in February 2026, global commodity markets have experienced a major shock. Energy and chemical products were hit the hardest due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — the main route for oil, gas, and fertilizer supplies from the Persian Gulf. According to analysts, prices for key commodities surged by dozens of percentage points during the first months of the conflict.

Sulfur recorded the sharpest increase, soaring by 95%, immediately impacting fertilizer production and the steel industry. European natural gas prices at the TTF hub jumped by 59%, while US WTI crude oil rose by 58%. Brent crude gained 50%. Petroleum products also saw strong growth: jet fuel and fuel oil climbed by 56%, gasoline by 52%, and diesel by 51%.

The agricultural sector also came under pressure. Urea prices increased by 24%, the overall fertilizer index rose by 20%, and rice prices climbed by 21%. Industrial metals and raw materials posted more moderate gains: iron ore rose by 12%, coal by 10%, and palm oil by 9%. Experts note that indirect effects from higher logistics and energy costs are spreading throughout global supply chains.

International organizations, including the World Bank, warn that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a new wave of global inflation. Analysts believe price stabilization will only be possible once safe shipping in the region is restored.

Price increases since the start of the war:

Tags: prices