How shipping restrictions in the Sea of Azov are slowing Russian grain exports

Russian grain producers are facing a new challenge: alongside a diesel shortage, they are now struggling to export newly harvested wheat from the country’s southern regions. According to Forbes, disruptions to shipping in the Sea of Azov, which normally handles about one-quarter of Russia’s grain exports, pushed global wheat futures up by 3–5% within just a few days. The key question is how long the restrictions will last. The peak export season runs from August through December, and if normal vessel traffic is not restored, Russia could face both lower export volumes and weaker domestic grain prices.

On July 8, two Russian tankers were attacked in the Sea of Azov. On July 10, Rostov Region Governor Yuri Slyusar reported a fire at the port of Taganrog. Two days later, he said another tanker had been damaged by a drone attack while entering the Azov–Black Sea shipping canal.

Reuters reported that Russia suspended navigation through the Azov–Don Canal and the Kerch Strait following attacks on vessels in the Sea of Azov. According to the agency, Russian border authorities stopped accepting transit applications through the Kerch Strait at 18:10 local time on July 10. The restrictions affected the ports of Azov, Rostov-on-Don and Taganrog.

According to Eduard Zernin, Chairman of the Board of the agricultural corporation BIO-TON, ports in the Sea of Azov account for about one-quarter of Russia’s grain exports.

On July 13, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that questions regarding shipping restrictions in the Sea of Azov should be addressed to Russia’s Ministry of Transport.

The Ministry of Transport told Forbes that it is taking measures to ensure cargo vessel movements amid increasing Ukrainian attacks on civilian shipping in the Sea of Azov. According to the ministry, shipowners are strengthening fleet protection, port authorities are optimizing vessel traffic and reducing turnaround times, while bulk cargo may be redirected to other transport routes if necessary.

A representative of the Rostov regional government confirmed to Forbes that restrictions are in place at the ports. According to the official, this is not a complete shutdown, as some vessels are still operating, but ports are temporarily neither receiving nor shipping grain. He expressed hope that the situation would be resolved quickly, comparing the measures to temporary airport closures introduced for security reasons.

Grain traders and farmers also told Forbes that navigation in southern Russian ports has become increasingly difficult.

Ports stop receiving and shipping grain

Natalia Zgurskaya, CEO of the agricultural company Zemlitsa, said the consequences of the shipping restrictions are already being felt throughout the supply chain, from port infrastructure to global commodity pricing. According to her, the canal has effectively been closed to both inbound and outbound traffic, bringing vessel movements along this route to a complete halt.

Southern Russia is currently harvesting its grain crop, which forms the country’s main export surplus. According to Andrey Sizov, Director of the SovEcon analytical center, global markets reacted immediately: on July 10, wheat prices rose by 3–5%. September 2026 wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade increased by 3.31% to $235/t, while wheat prices on Euronext climbed by more than 4% in a single day.

Sizov believes that if the restrictions last only until the end of July, the impact on exports will remain relatively limited. However, a prolonged disruption after August, when the bulk of the harvest becomes available, could significantly complicate Russian grain exports. During this period, monthly grain shipments can reach as much as 6 mln tons, and there are virtually no alternative ports capable of handling such volumes.

Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture said that, if necessary, grain logistics would be redirected through other regions with available export infrastructure. However, the ministry acknowledged that alternative transport routes are still being developed together with government agencies and industry representatives.

Sea of Azov ports are difficult to replace

According to Zgurskaya, the suspension of shipments could quickly overload port storage facilities while leaving trucks and vessels idle. Ships that have already arrived or have been chartered cannot either enter ports for loading or depart with cargo.

A representative of a major grain trading company told Forbes that shallow-water ports on the Volga River have also effectively stopped operating because they have nowhere to ship grain. At the same time, Eduard Zernin believes that although the disruption comes at the start of the harvest campaign, it is not yet critical because Russia’s deep-water export terminals on the Black Sea and in the northwest continue operating, while additional exports may be shifted to rail transport.

However, Andrey Sizov argues that deep-water terminals cannot fully replace the Sea of Azov ports. Some grain could be redirected to the port of Vysotsk in the Leningrad region, but its annual handling capacity is only about 4 mln tons.

According to analysts, farmers are likely to bear the greatest losses. Lower demand from export terminals could push domestic grain prices lower, while production costs and logistics expenses continue to rise.

Mikhail Bondarev, Executive Director of the People’s Farmer Association in the Rostov region, said that unlike last year, when there was little grain to sell, this year there is grain but no buyers. He noted that the diesel shortage has increased production costs, many farms remain financially strained after last year’s poor harvest, grain purchases have been suspended, ports are not accepting deliveries, prices are falling, and many producers are struggling to repay loans or purchase fuel.

Tags: Russia, export, grain, wheat