High freight costs and corn exports put pressure on Ukrainian wheat shipments

Ukrainian wheat continues to be actively exported through Romania’s port of Constanta, but logistics pressure could increase significantly as early as October with the start of active new-crop corn shipments. According to PUSK estimates, this will intensify competition between crops for available transport capacity.

Ukraine exported around 1 mln tons of wheat in July and about 600 thsd tons in August, while September shipments may again approach 1 mln tons. At the same time, the arrival of the new corn crop on the market could slow the pace of wheat exports.

Demand for Ukrainian wheat on international markets remains strong. Last week, Egypt was buying Ukrainian wheat at around $300–307/t, but rising transportation costs are significantly worsening the economics of these shipments.

Over the past two weeks, sea freight rates to Egypt have increased from around $60/t to $100–105/t. This means that logistics costs alone have risen by approximately $40/t, adding pressure on domestic purchase prices.

Analysts expect the wheat market to remain relatively stable in the near term. However, high freight costs and limited logistics capacity will continue to determine export margins and the competitiveness of Ukrainian wheat on international markets.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, export, wheat, logistics, Constanta