Heavy rains in China damage wheat quality and could boost imports

Heavy and prolonged rainfall in China’s key wheat-growing regions during the harvest season has reduced the quality of part of the crop, potentially leading to higher wheat imports in the coming months. The provinces of Henan and Hubei were among the hardest hit, with significant precipitation occurring during the peak harvesting period in late May.

Analysts estimate that between 4.8 million and 10 million tonnes of wheat have sprouted due to excessive moisture. Such grain is generally unsuitable for flour production and is typically diverted to animal feed use. However, drier weather that followed the rains helped limit the overall extent of the damage.

Despite the quality losses, experts still expect a strong winter wheat harvest overall. According to market analysts, the volume of lower-quality wheat in major producing provinces may remain relatively limited. A final assessment is still pending, as only about 42% of the country’s wheat acreage has been harvested so far.

China, the world’s largest wheat producer and consumer, usually meets most of its demand through domestic production. Nevertheless, wheat imports have already increased significantly in 2026. During the first four months of the year, the country imported 2.43 million tonnes of wheat, more than double the volume recorded during the same period a year earlier.

Market observers believe the decline in grain quality could increase demand for imported milling wheat. However, any rise in imports may occur with a delay, similar to the situation following the severe rains of 2023, when import purchases surged only several months after harvest losses became apparent.

Additional risks to the crop remain. Chinese authorities have warned about the possibility of lodging caused by strong winds in northern Henan and other regions. Such damage can complicate harvesting operations, increase production costs, and further reduce farmers’ returns.

Meanwhile, the China Meteorological Administration has forecast additional rainfall in major wheat-producing areas in the coming days. The expected precipitation could slow harvesting and grain-drying activities in Hebei, Shanxi, Henan, and Anhui provinces, adding to concerns about the quality of the new crop.

To minimize losses, authorities in nine major wheat-producing provinces have mobilized resources to accelerate harvesting and grain drying. Market participants are closely monitoring developments, as even a moderate increase in Chinese wheat imports could support global wheat prices, which have already risen significantly this year amid weather-related concerns in other major producing countries.

Tags: China, wheat, crop forecast, grain quality