Black sea wheat: how long can Romania and Bulgaria fill the gap

Article author:

Maksym Kharchenko

Grain & Freight Market Analyst

The sharp decline in Ukrainian and russian wheat shipments at the height of the new-crop season is changing not only the trade destinations, but also the price formation factors. The key issue is no longer how much wheat is available for an exporter but how much can be physically delivered to buyers on time.

Ukraine and russia jointly exported around 8.7 M mt of wheat in July-August 2025. In the current season, the combined volume is estimated at only 4.6 mln tons. In August shipments from the two countries fell from more than 6 mln tons a year earlier to around 2 mln tons in 2026.

This means that almost 4 mln tons of available Black Sea wheat disappeared from the global market during only one months – August – of the 2026/27 season.

MENA and Southeast Asian countries traditionally remain the principal buyers of Ukrainian and russian wheat. For MENA importers, Romania and Bulgaria have become the first short-term alternatives. Constanța, Varna and Burgas offer a relatively short sailing distance and familiar Black Sea contract execution. This advantage is already visible in vessel line-ups.

Romanian and Bulgarian wheat shipments increased to approximately 4.3 mln tons in July–August, compared with around 3.0 mln tons in the same period last year. August shipments alone rose to 2.65 mln tons from 1.55 mln tons in August 2025.

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Tags: Romania, Black Sea region, wheat, Bulgaria, export, grain