Rising supply pressures global edible oil prices

Increasing new-crop supplies are putting more pressure on the global vegetable oil market despite a sharp rise in crude oil prices. Brent has gained around 14% over the past two weeks to $98/barrel, supporting the biofuel sector, but large crops and ample supplies of soybeans, sunflower seed and rapeseed in 2026/27 are limiting the upside potential for vegetable oil prices.

November palm oil futures in Malaysia remained near MYR 4,976/t, or $1,231/t, over the past week. The market is facing pressure from weaker Indian demand and expectations of rising Malaysian inventories. Stocks are forecast to increase by 4.9% in August to a record 2.76 mln tons.

December soybean oil futures in Chicago fell 2.7% over the week to $1,557/t amid expectations of increasing new-crop soybean supplies. Meanwhile, spot soybean oil prices in Brazil remained at $1,190–1,210/t FOB, while futures in China rose to $1,350–1,370/t.

The strongest pressure is being seen in the sunflower oil market. Indian bid prices fell by $30/t over the week to $1,440/t CIF Mumbai amid increasing supplies from the Black Sea region. In Ukraine, bid prices dropped by $30–40/t to $1,200–1,220/t delivered to Danube ports, while Russian sunflower oil declined to $1,250–1,260/t FOB.

European rapeseed oil, by contrast, gained $25–30/t over the week to $1,450–1,460/t FOB Netherlands, following higher rapeseed and canola prices. At the same time, Ukrainian rapeseed oil is offered at $1,280–1,320/t delivered to Poland, limiting the potential for further price gains in the EU.

Tags: palm oil, edible oils, global market, sunflower oil, soybean oil, prices