Growing corn supplies put pressure on prices in Ukraine and the EU

Increasing global corn supplies are putting additional pressure on prices in Ukraine and the European Union. Faster harvesting in the US and Ukraine, favorable planting conditions in Brazil and Argentina, and stronger international trade activity are intensifying competition among exporters. Meanwhile, constraints on Ukraine’s export logistics are limiting overseas shipments and adding pressure on domestic purchase prices. In the European market, March corn futures in Paris declined by 1.4% over the week to €264.75/t, or approximately $295/t.

As of October 25, US farmers had harvested 60% of their corn area, up 16 percentage points from the previous week but below the five-year average of 66%. In Brazil, first-crop corn planting reached 58% of the planned area, compared with 55% a year earlier. According to grain exporters’ association ANEC, Brazil’s corn exports could reach 6.1 mln tons in October, up 17% from September. Meanwhile, FAS USDA raised its forecast for Argentina’s corn production in 2026/27 to 62 mln tons due to favorable weather conditions and expectations of higher yields.

Competition among suppliers in the EU market is intensifying amid rising imports. According to the European Commission, EU countries imported 7.11 mln tons of corn between July 1 and October 25, 2026, up 35.7% from the same period last season. The US became the largest supplier, increasing shipments 2.7-fold to 3.19 mln tons and accounting for nearly 45% of total imports. Ukraine almost doubled its corn exports to the EU to 1.66 mln tons, while shipments from Brazil declined by 32.5% to 1.95 mln tons. Meanwhile, delays in Ukrainian shipments are prompting European importers to increase purchases of readily available US and Brazilian corn.

In Ukraine, new-crop corn supplies are increasing amid limited export opportunities. As of October 26, farmers had harvested 7.89 mln tons of corn from 1.325 mln hectares, or 29% of the planned area, with an average yield of 5.95 t/ha. Meanwhile, corn exports during the first 26 days of October totaled just 208 thsd tons, compared with 807 thsd tons in October last year. Overall, Ukraine has exported 2.135 mln tons of corn since the beginning of the season, up from 1.72 mln tons a year earlier, supported by stronger shipments in July and August.

Over the week, domestic corn purchase prices in Ukraine declined to UAH 4,000–5,000/t on FCA farm terms. Deliveries to Danube ports were priced at UAH 7,000–7,200/t, or $150–158/t, while prices at western terminals stood at UAH 7,000–7,500/t, or $160–165/t. Prolonged rainfall continues to slow harvesting and the arrival of new-crop grain on the market, while significant railcar and truck congestion at the western border limits the potential for higher exports. Against the backdrop of growing global supplies and stronger competition in the EU market, these factors continue to weigh on Ukrainian corn prices.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, EU, global market