Global wheat stocks look ample only on paper: exportable supply is nearing a critical level

Global wheat stocks remain substantial in MY 2026/27, with USDA forecasting ending inventories at 276.3 mln tons and production at 822.4 mln tons.

However, only around 68.6 mln tons of ending stocks are expected to be held by the major exporters — Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and the US. A large share of global inventories is concentrated in China and India and effectively does not contribute to supply on the international market.

As a result, the global market’s actual buffer is much smaller than the headline stock figure suggests. Wheat availability for international trade is becoming increasingly dependent on conditions in the key exporting countries.

USDA also forecasts lower global wheat trade in MY 2026/27, while logistical disruptions in the Black Sea are further restricting shipments from Russia and Ukraine.

Under these conditions, a weaker crop in one of the key producing regions, new export restrictions or logistics disruptions could quickly tighten the supply available to importers and increase pressure on global prices.

Tags: stocks, export, prices, wheat