Global walnut oil market grows despite declining US walnut harvest

The global walnut oil market is expanding, driven by rising demand for natural vegetable oils and premium products. According to estimates from market research firm Market.us, the market was valued at $1.1 bln in 2024 and could reach $2 bln by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.4%. Meanwhile, a decline in walnut production in the United States, one of the world’s largest producers, is creating additional risks for the supply of raw materials to processing companies.

One of the most promising segments is unrefined cold-pressed walnut oil, supported by growing consumer demand for natural food products. Walnut oil is used in the food industry, cosmetics manufacturing and other specialized sectors. According to Market.us, the food industry accounts for approximately 48.4% of global walnut oil consumption. The expanding range of premium vegetable oils is creating additional opportunities for walnut growers and processors.

Meanwhile, a significant decline in raw material production is expected in the United States. According to USDA forecasts, California’s walnut harvest is projected at 680 thsd short tons in 2026, compared with 809 thsd short tons a year earlier, representing a 16% decrease. The main factors were unfavorable weather conditions and a reduction in the number of nuts per tree. Bearing acreage remained virtually unchanged. Lower production and limited carryover stocks could intensify competition for high-quality raw materials and create upward pressure on prices.

China, by contrast, continues to expand walnut production and remains the world’s largest producer of the crop. According to USDA, the country’s harvest is forecast to increase by 7% to 1.6 mln tons in the MY 2026/27, supported by favorable weather conditions in major growing regions. The development of processing capacity is creating opportunities to produce higher-value products. Chile, France, Italy and Moldova also remain important participants in the international market, with growing production of specialty nut oils.

Despite the decline in US production, global walnut supplies could increase. According to estimates from the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC), global production in the 2026/27 season is forecast at approximately 2.89 mln tons, around 3% above the previous season. Higher production in China is expected to partially offset lower harvests in other countries. Meanwhile, further growth in the walnut oil market will depend on the availability of high-quality raw materials, processing costs and demand for premium vegetable oils.

Tags: walnut oil, China, USA, nuts, global market