Global vegetable oil prices may remain high through 2027

Global vegetable oil prices could rise in the coming months and remain elevated through 2027 due to tighter supply. According to Oil World, disruptions to sunflower oil shipments from the Black Sea region are coinciding with lower soybean oil exports from South America.

If a safe shipping corridor is not restored, sunflower oil exports from Ukraine and Russia could fall 300–350 thsd tons per month below their potential level from October, Oil World Executive Director Thomas Mielke said.

India could be among the countries most affected by these disruptions. If delays in Black Sea supplies persist, the country may need to increase palm oil purchases, especially after recently cutting the basic import duty on crude sunflower oil to zero.

Additional pressure on the market is expected from a seasonal decline in South American soybean oil exports from October. At the same time, global production of oils and fats is growing more slowly than demand, particularly from the biodiesel industry.

Palm oil has become more competitive following the recent price correction and could partially replace sunflower oil in import markets. According to Oil World, this could support a recovery in palm oil prices and keep overall vegetable oil prices elevated through 2027.

Tags: vegetable oils, prices, Oilseed, edible oils, global market