Global sunflower oil market ends the year with a supply deficit

The global sunflower oil market is ending the year with a supply deficit, caused by falling exports from Ukraine and Russia, only partially offset by increased supplies from Argentina, according to Oil World (Germany).

A significant supply contraction is expected by the end of 2025, potentially down by approximately 2.4 million tons compared to last year.

Overall supplies are expected to be around 25.1 million tons, below the MY 2024/25 (25.3 million tons) and significantly below the MY 2023/24 (28.2 million tons).

Global exports will decrease by 2.7 million tons. The main contributors to this decline will be Ukraine (1.6 million tons) and Russia (1.4 million tons). Meanwhile, supplies from Argentina could increase by approximately 30%, to 1.6 million tons, but this will only account for about 12% of the global total.

Sunflower oil consumption is also declining in key regions. In the EU, a decline of almost 1 million tons is expected. In China and India, the decline will be approximately 0.5 million tons.

Analysts also note that prices have remained elevated in recent weeks compared to other major vegetable oils, indicating a persistent supply shortage.

Tags: Ukraine, sunflower oil, export, prices