Global soybean production to reach record 442 mln tons in 2026/27

Global soybean production is forecast at 442.25 mln tons in 2026/27, up 12.79 mln tons from the previous season. Almost all of the increase will come from the two largest producers: the US is expected to boost its crop by around 7 mln tons, while Brazil will add another 5.5 mln tons.

Despite the expected increase in global supply, soybean prices in Chicago are rising. November futures climbed from below $11.50 per bushel on August 11 to $12.22 per bushel on August 19. Strong crushing activity and robust export demand are supporting the market. USDA expects US domestic soybean use to increase by 122 mln bushels, while exports are forecast to rise by 140 mln bushels.

China remains the key buyer of US soybeans. As of August 21, Chinese importers had already booked 6.558 mln tons of new-crop US soybeans. Another 4.69 mln tons from the upcoming US crop have been sold to buyers whose destinations have not yet been disclosed.

The biofuel sector is providing additional support to the market. USDA forecasts US soybean oil use for biodiesel production to increase by 2.8 bln pounds in the new season. Higher crude oil prices in August have also supported soybean oil and soybean prices. Meanwhile, US soybean meal exports are expected to increase by nearly 2 mln tons.

The outlook for the global market will largely depend on Brazil’s new crop, with soybean planting set to begin in September. Analysts’ forecasts differ: USDA expects production to increase further, while Rabobank forecasts a 2% decline to 178 mln tons. El Niño remains an additional risk, potentially bringing excessive rainfall to southern Brazil and drought to northern regions.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, USA, Argentina, crop forecast