Global rice production to decline for first time in decades

Global rice production will decline for the first time in a decade, reducing supplies of this staple food, according to a forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Rice dominates the diet in Asia, but its price is also rising in other regions.

Rice production in the upcoming 2026-2027 season will be approximately 538 million tons, marking the first decline in 11 years, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts in a published report. The largest declines are expected in India, Myanmar, and the United States, where harvests are expected to fall by 15% compared to last year due to farmers reducing planting area. Combined with record rice consumption and trade, this will lead to a reduction in global stocks.

The decline could be influenced by the sharp rise in fertilizer and energy costs caused by the Gulf War. Some producers are considering abandoning the planting of a new crop known for its high fertilizer requirements.

Furthermore, the rice harvest in India, the world’s largest agricultural producer, could be affected by unusually low monsoon rains. The annual rains, which begin around June, are expected to be limited due to the looming El Niño climate phenomenon. The US Department of Agriculture forecasts that the country’s exports will remain strong, while shipments from the US will decline.

Rice is a significant part of the diet, especially in Asia. Reduced supplies could lead to higher consumer prices, which in turn could contribute to overall inflation, which is already being seen in countries such as the Philippines, Bloomberg notes.

Wholesale prices for Thai white rice, the benchmark in Asia, have risen by approximately 15% since the end of March. Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange surged 8% last week, the largest jump in two years.

Tags: Myanmar, Philippines, rice, India