Global potato market expects price recovery amid declining production

Global potato prices could begin to recover in the fourth quarter of 2026 as production declines in key regions. According to analysts at the Xinhua Index Research Institute, shrinking potato planting areas in the United States, the European Union and China are expected to gradually restrict supplies, although prices currently show mixed trends across different markets. Meanwhile, high inventories of processed potato products and intensifying international competition continue to limit price recovery in this segment.

In the United States, declining production has already been accompanied by higher fresh potato prices. The planted area for the MY 2026/27 decreased by 3.81% to approximately 351 thsd ha, reaching a record low. In August, the average retail price of potatoes in US supermarkets was 12.71% higher year-on-year and had increased by almost 85% from its February low. Further supply reductions, combined with demand from the processing industry, could support elevated prices.

In China, the situation remains mixed. Despite reduced planting areas in major producing regions, the arrival of the new crop has led to a seasonal decline in wholesale prices. However, potatoes remain more expensive year-on-year: at the end of September, the average wholesale price in major consumption markets stood at 2.29 yuan/kg, up 4.87% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, the processed potato products market remains under significant pressure. High inventories and intense competition have pushed potato starch prices down by approximately 33–35% from their 2023 peaks, while potato powder prices have fallen by 38%.

In the European Union, a 12.78% reduction in potato planting areas has been compounded by the negative effects of summer heat and drought. The decline is particularly noticeable in potatoes intended for processing, potentially affecting the production of French fries and other potato products. Nevertheless, the European market remained under price pressure throughout the third quarter. Analysts expect tighter supplies to gradually affect prices for both fresh potatoes and processed potato products.

According to the Xinhua Index Research Institute, the global potato market could enter a period of price recovery in the fourth quarter following a prolonged period of weakness. The greatest potential for a trend reversal is seen in the processed potato products segment, where reduced production is expected to gradually offset excess inventories. However, the prospects for higher prices will depend on the pace of supply reductions, demand from the food industry and competition among major supplying countries.

Tags: potato, global market