Global fruit and vegetable trade growth virtually stalls

Between 2021 and 2025, the average annual increase in the value of global fresh fruit and vegetable trade, adjusted for inflation, was just 0.1%. According to FRUIT LOGISTICA’s report on fruit and vegetable market trends for 2027, international trade is effectively stagnating amid increasing trade restrictions, higher tariffs, geopolitical conflicts and the adverse effects of climate change. Producers and exporters are increasingly facing supply chain disruptions and the need to adapt to volatile global markets.

However, trends vary significantly across individual segments of the fresh produce market. International trade volumes of apples, grapes and oranges are declining, while blueberry and avocado exports continue to grow. These developments reflect a gradual shift in global demand patterns and intensifying competition among producers of traditional and emerging export crops.

Climate change remains one of the key long-term risks for the industry, gradually reshaping the geography of fruit and vegetable production. According to RaboResearch, European fruit-growing regions could undergo significant changes by 2050. Mediterranean countries are expected to face increasing heat and water shortages, making the cultivation of certain crops more challenging. Meanwhile, cooler regions of Europe may experience more favorable conditions for growing particular fruit varieties.

Transport infrastructure challenges and rising logistics costs are creating additional difficulties for international trade. In particular, low water levels in the Panama Canal and the Rhine River periodically restrict shipping, complicating the transportation of perishable produce. Trade barriers, geopolitical instability and the risk of disruptions along transport routes are forcing exporters to reconsider traditional supply chains and seek alternative markets.

FRUIT LOGISTICA experts emphasize that optimizing costs and improving logistics efficiency alone are no longer sufficient for fruit and vegetable companies to remain competitive. Producers and traders need to diversify export destinations, reduce dependence on individual buyers and transport routes, and invest in technology and innovation. The industry’s main priority is becoming greater resilience to climate, economic and trade risks that could increasingly affect global fruit and vegetable supplies.

Tags: vegetables, fruits, global market