Global fishmeal and fish oil production could fall to a 10-year low

Global fishmeal production could fall below 4.6 mln tons in 2026, its lowest level since 2016. Meanwhile, fish oil production is forecast at 1.15 mln tons, also the lowest level in a decade. This was reported by Oils & Fats International, citing estimates from the International Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO). The main reason for the downward revisions is reduced raw material supply from Peru, one of the world’s largest producers of these products.

According to IFFO, fishmeal production in the countries covered by its statistics declined by 45% in January–August 2026 compared with the same period last year, while fish oil production fell by 26%. The sharpest decline was recorded in Peru, which typically accounts for around 20% of global production of these products. Raw material availability remained limited due to the closure of the fishing season in the north-central part of the country. Weather conditions associated with El Niño pose an additional risk, potentially causing prolonged warming of coastal waters.

Meanwhile, conditions in other producing countries remain mixed. In August, raw material intake increased thanks to higher catches in Chile, Spain and the US, allowing the overall figure to exceed the level recorded in the same month last year. However, supplies remained limited in African countries, Iceland and the North Atlantic, while volumes were relatively stable in Denmark and Norway. According to IFFO forecasts, fishmeal production from pelagic and demersal fish species will total around 3.6 mln tons, while fish oil output from these sources is projected at 605 thsd tons.

The situation in China, one of the world’s major fishmeal consumers, is also raising concerns. At the end of September, imported fishmeal stocks continued to decline and remained significantly below average levels. Meanwhile, the recovery in domestic production following the end of the seasonal fishing ban was weaker than expected. A reduction in global fishmeal supplies could increase pressure on the feed ingredients market, particularly for aquaculture, and strengthen interest in alternative protein sources, including soybean meal.

According to IFFO, increased processing of other fish species, particularly salmon and pangasius, could provide some support to fish oil production. However, final global production figures will depend on fishing activity during the remaining months of 2026. IFFO Market Research Director Enrico Bachis noted that further fishing activity could change the current forecasts. Nevertheless, limited raw material availability in Peru and low stocks in China remain important risk factors for the global fishmeal and fish oil market.

Tags: fishmeal, global market, fish oil