Global feed grain market remains expensive despite record production

The global feed industry is facing an unusual situation in 2026, where record grain production is not translating into lower prices for key feed ingredients. According to the International Grains Council (IGC), this reflects a structural imbalance driven by factors beyond supply volumes.

In the 2025/26 season, global grain production is forecast to reach a historic high of 2.477 billion tonnes, marking one of the strongest annual increases in nearly a decade. At the same time, global ending stocks are also expected to rise, adding a layer of physical supply security to the market.

Despite this, prices for major feed commodities such as corn, wheat and soybeans remain firm. The IGC grain and oilseed price index rose by 3% over the past month, with corn supported by weather risks in South America, production revisions and steady demand, while wheat prices climbed to their highest levels since mid-2024.

The soybean market remains heavily influenced by Brazil, which accounts for more than 60% of global trade. Strong demand from Asian buyers continues to strain export logistics and supports prices for soybeans and soybean meal despite adequate global supply.

Analysts note that current price dynamics are increasingly driven by logistics, trade flows and demand patterns rather than production levels alone. This has kept volatility elevated even in a season of record output.

Looking ahead to the 2026/27 season, the IGC projects a potential 3% decline in global grain production to 2.414 billion tonnes due to reduced acreage and yields. At the same time, consumption is expected to rise further, which could gradually tighten global stocks and provide underlying support to prices.

For feed producers, the key challenge is shifting from simple procurement strategies toward more active risk and inventory management. In a market where record supply coexists with persistent price pressure, flexibility in sourcing and ration formulation is becoming a decisive factor of competitiveness.

Tags: prices, compound feed