Falling wheat prices in Ukraine may soon stop amid sharp rise in quotes on US exchanges

Last week’s heat accelerated the ripening and harvesting of wheat in Ukraine, which increased supply and, against the backdrop of a better-than-expected harvest in the south, increased pressure on prices.

During the week in Ukraine, export purchase prices for food wheat decreased by another 200-300 UAH/t to 10,400-10,500 UAH/t or 206-210 $/t, and for feed wheat – by 300-400 UAH/t to 9,600-9,900 UAH/t or 190-195 $/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

The precipitation forecast for the next 7-8 days may delay the harvest and slightly worsen the quality of wheat, so an increase in the supply of feed wheat is expected.

Exporters are finding it difficult to sell Ukrainian wheat due to increased competition from Russian wheat, which is offered at $227-230/t FOB due to a high winter wheat harvest in Kuban and Stavropol. Importers have actively taken advantage of the decline in world prices and have started holding tenders.

The General Authority for Food Security of Saudi Arabia (GFSA) purchased 661,000 tons of food wheat in an international tender last week for delivery in September-October at an average price of $269.4/ton C&F, which is $7.5/ton lower than it was in March for delivery in July-August.

On US exchanges, wheat quotes continue to grow actively against the backdrop of weather factors and increased speculative demand caused by a decrease in the harvest, even despite the decline in export rates.

September wheat futures rose over the week, reversing the previous week’s decline:

• by 5.9% to $225.6/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+3.2 per month),
• by 5.7% to $238.7/t – for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (+1.5%),
• by 5% to $231.7/t – for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-2.4%),
• by 0.9% to €204.25/t or $233.6/t for soft wheat on Euronext in Paris (+1.4%).

According to NASS Crop Progress, as of July 6, winter wheat in the United States was harvested on 59% of the area (51% on average for 5 years), and the share of winter wheat crops in good and excellent condition during the week remained at 26% (48% last year), while the share of spring wheat crops in good and excellent condition decreased by 2% to 57% (50% last year).

Wheat export shipments from the US for the period June 26 – July 2 decreased by 66.4% compared to the previous week to 133.6 thousand tons, and in total since the beginning of the MY 2026/27 (June 1) amounted to 1.51 million tons, which is 19.4% lower than the pace of the previous season.

According to FranceAgriMer, in France, during June 22-29 (during the heat period), the number of soft wheat crops in good and excellent condition decreased by 6% to 68% (67% last year), and about 26% of the area has already been threshed (5% last year).

The second heat wave that will hit Europe this week will continue to reduce the yield potential of spring crops, especially corn and spring wheat, which will keep prices high. This, in turn, will stimulate demand from importers, who will start actively switching to purchasing cheap Black Sea wheat, which will stop the fall in prices in Ukraine.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat