Excess imported beef weighs on US prices, while China supports demand for 2027

The US beef market is under pressure from substantial import volumes, which are driving down current prices, while stronger demand from China is supporting prices for shipments scheduled for 2027. According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), imports of beef trimmings fell by 12.7% to 18.27 thsd tons in the week ended October 10, but remained 53.1% above the corresponding level a year earlier. Since the beginning of 2026, the US has imported a total of 783.3 thsd tons of beef trimmings, up 19.8% year-on-year and 40.1% above the 2024 level.

Brazil was the largest supplier of beef trimmings to the US during the reporting week, accounting for 32.5% of imports, or 5.94 thsd tons. Weekly shipments from Brazil increased by 52.4%. Australia accounted for 29.6% of US imports, Argentina for 12%, Canada for 10.6%, and New Zealand for 6.8%. Brazilian exports of fresh and frozen beef to the US increased particularly sharply, reaching 44.4 thsd tons in September, up 465% year-on-year. Over the first nine months of the year, shipments from Brazil rose by 55.6% to 285.4 thsd tons. Meanwhile, Australia exported 378.6 thsd tons of beef to the US in January–September, an increase of 15.2%.

Ample supplies of imported beef, combined with subdued demand from US processors, continue to weigh on prices. According to Platts assessments, frozen 90CL lean beef trimmings, containing 90% lean meat, were priced at $3.13 per pound on a CIF US East Coast basis. This was 4 cents below the previous week’s level, 6 cents lower than a month earlier and 18 cents below the year-ago level. Traders report excess inventories available for spot and November delivery, while purchasing activity remains limited. Changes to the terms of duty-free beef imports into the US are creating additional uncertainty.

Meanwhile, Chinese demand for beef shipments scheduled for 2027 remains strong, supporting prices in exporting countries, particularly Australia and Brazil. According to market participants, some Australian meat processors have accumulated substantial inventories destined for Chinese buyers, prompting certain plants to reduce operations to three or four days per week. Strong demand for future shipments is creating a gap between spot and forward prices. In particular, offers for South American lean beef in the US market stand at around $2.98 per pound for spot delivery, $3.05 per pound for delivery within 16–60 days, and $3.12 per pound for shipments arriving in 2027.

The global beef market is therefore showing mixed trends: excess imported supplies in the US are putting pressure on near-term prices, while expectations of stronger Chinese demand are supporting values for future shipments. Further market developments will depend on the pace of inventory reductions in the US, meat processing activity and China’s purchasing volumes in the first quarter of 2027. US import quotas and tariff conditions for suppliers from Brazil, Argentina and other countries will also play an important role. According to traders, prices for December and early 2027 deliveries could remain above current levels even if excess supplies persist in the US market.

Tags: China, Beef cattle, USA