Europe faces jet fuel deficit in Q4

Europe could face a jet fuel deficit of around 510 thsd barrels per day in Q4 2026, according to Energy Aspects. Risks have increased since the start of the Iran war, which disrupted Middle Eastern supplies and effectively cut off around half of Europe’s traditional jet fuel imports.

To offset the shortfall, Europe is increasing purchases from more distant suppliers. In September, jet fuel imports from South Korea reached around 129 thsd barrels per day, the highest level since October 2022. Additional volumes are also arriving from Nigeria, the US and Canada.

The situation is being aggravated by shrinking inventories. Jet fuel stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub fell to a seven-year low in the week to September 10. Analysts expect Europe to remain heavily dependent on higher imports through Q4.

At the same time, Asia has a substantial jet fuel surplus. Energy Aspects estimates the region’s Q4 surplus at around 419 thsd barrels per day, compared with just 18 thsd barrels per day in the US. Higher European prices and a wider spread versus Asian benchmarks are making shipments to Europe increasingly attractive.

South Korea has already raised jet fuel output to a seven-year high of nearly 13.89 mln barrels in July, while exports reached a 3.5-year high. This is strengthening the country’s role as one of Europe’s key alternative suppliers amid the expected deficit.

Tags: aviation fuel, EU