Europe could harvest its smallest potato crop in decades

European potato production in 2026 could fall to one of its lowest levels in decades due to extreme heat and drought. Analysts estimate that NEPG countries may lose more than 3.5 mln tons of potatoes, while combined farmer losses in Belgium, Germany, France, the Netherlands and the UK could exceed €818 mln.

The harvest in NEPG countries is expected to be 7–21% below the five-year average. Germany is forecast to see the largest decline, with output down by 1.13 mln tons. In France, production could fall by 0.99 mln tons, while average yields may drop to their lowest level in more than 30 years.

Belgium’s losses are estimated at 0.79 mln tons, with around half of the main processing variety failing to meet buyers’ size requirements. The Netherlands could lose 0.21 mln tons, while the UK may see output fall by around 0.44 mln tons, potentially resulting in its worst harvest on record.

The weather-related losses come on top of reduced planted area following the record 2025 crop of 27.3 mln tons, which led to oversupply and lower prices. Farmers responded by cutting potato area by 11% in Germany, 10% in France, 15% in the Netherlands and 17% in Belgium.

At average five-year yields, the reduction in planted area alone could remove around 3.6 mln tons of potential production from the market. As a result, the total EU potato crop in 2026 is estimated at 19.5–20.5 mln tons, potentially the lowest level on record.

Tags: potato, crop forecast, EU