EU soybean meal deficit may support demand for rapeseed and sunflower meal

The European Union could face a soybean meal deficit of at least 5 mln tons in MY 2026/27, or around 20% of total consumption, according to FEFAC. This could strengthen demand for alternative high-protein feed ingredients, particularly rapeseed meal and sunflower meal.

FEFAC estimates that prices for rapeseed meal and sunflower meal are closely linked to soybean meal values, meaning a shortage of soybean meal could also support related markets. Additional costs for rapeseed and sunflower meal purchases are estimated at around €449 mln.

The main risks to soybean meal supplies in the EU include drought, disruptions to Black Sea trade and EUDR-related requirements. Additional costs for sourcing soybeans and soybean products compliant with the new rules could reach €1.05 bln.

FEFAC notes that the potential to quickly replace soybean meal with other protein sources remains limited. Ukraine and Serbia are classified as low- to medium-risk origins, while logistics remain the main constraint for Ukrainian supplies.

FEFAC estimates the total economic impact on soybean, rapeseed and sunflower meal supplies to the EU feed and livestock sectors at around €1.4 bln. If the deficit persists, demand for alternative protein feed ingredients in the European market could remain supported.

Tags: sunflower meal, rapeseed meal, EU, soybean meal