EU crushers are well supplied with rapeseed for now, but import demand will return this autumn

Crude oil prices surged by 20% over the past week amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, with Brent crude futures for September rising above the psychological level of $100.6/barrel, up 36% over the past month. Higher energy prices, combined with export disruptions in the Black Sea, provided additional support to rapeseed futures in Paris and canola prices in Winnipeg.

Grain exports from Ukraine through Black Sea ports have virtually come to a halt as shipowners refuse to send vessels for loading following targeted Russian attacks on civilian ships and damage to grain terminals at Ukrainian ports.

November rapeseed futures on Euronext in Paris gained another 3.3% over the past seven days to €563.5/t ($641.5/t), bringing monthly gains to 7.8%. At the same time, August futures fell to €544/t due to a sharp increase in physical supplies for August delivery.

European farmers significantly increased rapeseed sales after prices rose from around €500/t to €540–560/t delivered to crushing plants. As a result, European crushers have already secured sufficient supplies through October-November and are currently unwilling to purchase additional rapeseed from Ukraine. Ukrainian farmers have also stepped up direct sales to processing plants instead of marketing through international traders.

On the ICE exchange in Winnipeg, November canola futures climbed 6.5% over the week to CAD 836/t ($593/t), extending monthly gains to 12.2% on the back of soaring crude oil prices.

In Ukraine, export bid prices for rapeseed at Black Sea ports have virtually disappeared, while bids for deliveries to the western border fell by €10–20/t to €460–470/t ($525–535/t) under pressure from sharply increased farmer selling and the inability to ship through Black Sea terminals during August and September.

Domestic crushers reduced procurement prices by UAH 2,000–2,500/t over the week to UAH 21,000–22,500/t ($415–440/t, VAT excluded, delivered to the plant) due to limited opportunities to export vegetable oil and meal, as well as abundant rapeseed supplies. According to processors, the volumes already purchased will be sufficient to keep plants operating until October.

Market participants hope traders will quickly restore logistics through Romania’s Constanța port and secure additional rail capacity to supply EU crushing plants, taking advantage of sharply lower rapeseed prices in Ukraine and significantly higher prices in the European Union.

At the same time, higher Canadian canola prices, reduced rapeseed shipments from Ukraine and expectations of a smaller Australian crop raise the question of where the EU will source the 5–5.5 mln tons of rapeseed imports it is expected to require in the 2026/27 season. Against this backdrop, Ukrainian farmers may benefit from postponing rapeseed sales until October-November, when logistics are expected to improve and crop prospects in Canada and Australia become clearer.

Tags: Ukraine, EU, prices, rapeseed, imports