El Niño 2026 has already surpassed previous Pacific Ocean temperature records

El Niño, which is developing in the Pacific Ocean, has already exceeded levels recorded during all previous such events, making it the strongest in the instrumental record. According to the UK Met Office, sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have surpassed those recorded during previous events. The phenomenon is expected to peak later this year.

The record-strength El Niño could have a significant impact on weather conditions in different parts of the world. During El Niño events, Australia, India and southern Africa typically face a higher risk of dry conditions, while some areas of South America, the Mediterranean and East Africa may receive more rainfall.

At the same time, the impact of El Niño on crop yields is not uniform. An analysis by the Center for Global Development notes that previous very strong El Niño events did not lead to lower average global cereal yields, although losses were significant in some countries. For example, during the strong 2015–2016 El Niño, corn yields declined in Southern Africa, while wheat losses were also recorded in India.

For global agricultural markets, an additional risk factor is that international prices for major grains and oilseeds have already increased in 2026. According to CGD, from January 2 to September 22, Paris wheat futures rose 26%, Chicago corn futures increased 23%, and soybean futures gained 29%. However, prices remain within normal ranges, while wheat and corn stocks in major exporting countries remain relatively high.

CGD notes that the biggest risk to food markets comes not only from El Niño itself, but from its potential combination with other shocks, including disruptions to exports through the Black Sea and high energy and fertilizer prices. Analysts also stress that it is still too early to assess the full impact of the current El Niño on crop yields and global food prices.