Mexico to increase grain imports as domestic production falls short

Mexico is expected to increase imports of major grains in 2026/27 as domestic production fails to keep pace with rising demand. According to USDA FAS, corn, rice and sorghum output is forecast to decline due to weak profitability, high production costs and erratic weather.

Grain demand is expected to remain strong, supported by population growth and expansion in the cattle, swine and poultry sectors. This will sustain purchases of both feed and food grains despite insufficient domestic production.

Corn production is forecast at 24.5 mln tons, down nearly 2% y/y, while imports could rise by more than 2% to 26.8 mln tons. Total corn consumption is expected to reach 52.4 mln tons, almost 3% higher than a year earlier.

Wheat production could increase by nearly 5% to 1.8 mln tons due to improved reservoir levels, but imports are also projected to rise by around 4% to 5.9 mln tons. Rice production is forecast to fall 6% to 160 thsd tons, while imports could increase to 830 thsd tons.

The US remains Mexico’s main grain supplier. In 2025/26, it accounted for 99% of Mexico’s corn imports, while integrated logistics, reliable quality and competitive pricing are expected to continue supporting its position in the Mexican market.

Tags: grain, imports, Mexico