EU corn deficit grows as logistical problems limit Ukrainian exports

The European Union may need to import 22–27 mln t of corn in the current season due to a weak crop. So far, around 5 mln t has arrived in EU countries, while Ukraine has significant grain stocks, StoneX reports.

According to the European Commission’s MARS monitoring service, the EU corn yield forecast has been lowered to 6.5 t/ha. COCERAL estimates EU corn production at 48.6 mln t, while the European Commission forecasts 48.8 mln t. Against this backdrop, the EU’s import needs could increase significantly.

Ukraine’s grain stocks are currently estimated at 24.6 mln t, up from 14.6 mln t a year earlier. Corn exports are also ahead of last year’s pace, reaching 1.9 mln t compared with 0.9 mln t at the same stage of the season. However, further growth in exports is constrained by logistical problems.

“Ukrainian exporters fear they will be able to export only 40% of their potential,” said Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX Vice President of Clearing and Sales. According to him, Ukraine is seeking to restore logistical routes through the Baltic states, Poland and Germany, including by replacing locomotives destroyed by Russian attacks.

As a result, the European market is facing a situation in which demand for imported corn is rising at the same time as Ukraine holds significant stocks. However, logistical constraints are making it more difficult to increase Ukrainian supplies and preventing exporters from fully benefiting from stronger demand in the EU.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, EU