Egypt’s private wheat importers have only one month of stocks left

Escalating tensions in the Black Sea and disruptions to grain shipments are creating growing risks for Egypt’s wheat supplies. Private-sector stocks are estimated at around 500 thsd tons, enough to cover only about one month of demand.

Limited supply and sharply higher freight costs have already pushed the price of 12.5% wheat CIF East Med for Egypt to a record $301/t. Buyers are bidding around $300/t for optional-origin wheat, while sellers are offering at $305–306/t.

Due to risks associated with vessels calling at Ukrainian and Russian ports, available supplies are increasingly being redirected through the Baltic, where freight costs exceed $40/t. Ukrainian wheat is also being shipped via Constanta and the Danube, although logistics are being complicated by a significant vessel queue at the Sulina Canal.

Replacing Black Sea wheat quickly with other European supplies is difficult. Romania and Bulgaria are facing quality issues for a second consecutive year, with market participants estimating that more than 50% of the wheat crop is feed-grade, while supplies of 12.5% protein wheat remain limited.

While some Egyptian private importers are delaying purchases because of record-high prices, government wheat stocks are much more comfortable, covering around six months of demand. However, as private stocks decline, import demand could rise sharply, providing additional support to global wheat prices.

Tags: stock limits, Egypt, wheat