Egypt’s private sector grabs bigger share of wheat trade

Egypt’s wheat import landscape is undergoing a transformation as private companies significantly expand their market share while the country grapples with tightening corn supplies from South America amid the expectation of a record import of wheat and corn this season.

Wheat demand and market trends

Since the marketing year began in July, private companies have increased their wheat import share to 75.8%, while the state’s portion plummeted to 24% of total imports.

This marks the first time in two decades that private sector participation has risen so dramatically in Egypt’s wheat trade, traditionally dominated by state entities.

Since Dec. 6, state agency Mostakbal Misr has managed state wheat imports, shifting its purchasing strategy from its predecessor, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, by acquiring wheat from local Egyptian companies and privately from international suppliers, rather than participating in tenders.

“Mostakbal Misr still lacks the experience in international trade. If the agency’s performance continues like this, in the future I think the private sector will handle the wheat imports,” one Cairo-based trader said.

Egypt’s wheat imports decreased by 626,000 mt, totalling 3.3 million mt (July–September 2025), according to lineup data from traders. The country is expected to import 13.2 million mt of wheat for the 2025-26 season, up 300,000 from last season, to accommodate a domestic consumption of 20.2 million mt, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts.

For October purchases, sellers expect increased demand from Egypt, supported by a strengthening Egyptian pound after a slow import period in September, when local ex-works prices were more competitive, offering an $8/mt discount. CIF Egypt bids for 12.5% protein wheat were heard at $252-$253/mt, compared to $255/mt offers for November loadings, with freight costs decreasing from $23/mt to $21/mt from Russia to Egypt for handysize ships.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the price of Milling Wheat Marker for November loadings at $231/mt on Oct. 7.

Since July, Egypt has imported 2 million mt of wheat from Russia, down from 2.58 million mt in 2024. Ukraine’s share, however, rose significantly to 1 million mt in 2025, up from 334,000 mt the previous year, as it seeks new markets in Africa and the Middle East due to EU quota restrictions.

Romania and Bulgaria experienced sharp declines, with imports falling from 822,000 mt in 2024 to just 149,000 mt in 2025. Market participants also reported some French wheat purchases from the state during periods when Black Sea wheat prices remained elevated in July-August.

Corn market dynamics

Egypt’s corn imports are expected to rise by 5% to 9.5 million mt for the season 2025-26 due to increased domestic consumption, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts. Domestic corn usage is also anticipated to grow by 9.6% to 17 million mt this season, partially driven by growth in the poultry sector, as both feed production and starch production industries are major end-users of corn in Egypt.

Brazilian, Argentinian and Ukrainian corn traditionally dominate Egypt’s imports, but supply patterns are shifting.

According to data from Egyptian ports, Brazilian corn’s share decreased to 48% as of September 2025 from 55% in 2024, while Argentina and Ukraine accounted for 24% and 17%, respectively. Argentina had 8% share, while Ukraine had a 35% share in 2024. Notably, US corn imports increased sharply, rising from 0.7% of total imports in 2024 to 8% in 2025.

The limited availability of South American corn is pressuring buyers to rely more heavily on Ukrainian origin, though traders report that Brazilian corn dominated the market in September and October due to superior quality and competitive pricing. Ukrainian corn arrivals are anticipated by November, with major importers already securing their first Ukrainian cargo for the season.

“Traders are continuing their attempts to raise prices, taking advantage of the shortages from Brazil and Argentina, along with the lack of Ukrainian corn due to its currently high prices,” an Egyptian importer said.

Additionally, traders have reported a decline in corn prices in the internal market, partially attributed to falling wheat bran prices. Lower wheat bran prices may encourage adjustments in feed formulations, allowing for a reduction in corn usage.

“Wheat bran cannot replace corn, but it can decrease its quantity in feed production, one importer said. “Normally, 70% of feed content is corn, but you can reduce that to 60% with wheat bran.”

Platts assessed Ukrainian corn FOB POC at $213/mt and Brazilian corn FOB Santos at $208.55/mt on Oct. 7 for November loading.