Dry weather in southern Ukraine poses risks to winter rapeseed sowing

Dry weather in southern Ukraine is creating risks for the timely sowing of winter rapeseed. A lack of soil moisture could delay fieldwork, while weather conditions are already beginning to influence market sentiment over future rapeseed supplies.

Concerns over the new crop are emerging amid strengthening Ukrainian rapeseed prices. Prices have edged higher in recent days, following the earlier rally in the European market.

At the same time, Ukrainian rapeseed continues to trade at a significant discount to European prices. CPT Odesa and FCA prices in Ukraine are around 10–15% below MATIF due to more challenging export logistics, high transportation costs and competition for supplies from domestic crushers.

Paris rapeseed futures recently reached around €550/t after a six-week rally. Prices have gained about 7% since late August, although the market corrected slightly in early September. Physical rapeseed offers in Central Europe are around €520–530/t FCA.

In the short term, Ukrainian rapeseed prices will continue to be influenced by export logistics and weather conditions. Persistent dry weather could complicate winter rapeseed sowing and increase concerns over supplies from the next crop.

Tags: Ukraine, rapeseed