Dry weather devastates Bulgarian corn harvest

According to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture, Bulgaria is projected to harvest its smallest corn crop since 2009 due to an exceptionally hot and dry summer. The FAS has revised its corn production estimate for the 2025-26 season to 1.5 million tonnes, a decrease of 130,000 tonnes compared to last year. This decline reflects the severe impact of climate challenges on the country’s agricultural sector.

The FAS indicates that further adjustments to the forecast may occur depending on harvest progress. Bulgaria’s Ministry of Agriculture reported the corn harvest began mid-August, earlier than usual, yielding a disappointing 2 tonnes per hectare. Planted areas have shrunk for the second consecutive year, down 19% year on year, driven by low yields and falling corn prices. Experts note that farmers plan to further reduce planting areas in 2026-27, with some considering removing corn from crop rotation, even at the risk of losing subsidies.

Rising domestic demand for corn processing for food, expanding ethanol production, and increased feed needs from the poultry and swine industries may necessitate higher imports, according to the FAS. Meanwhile, wheat production in Bulgaria is expected to rise by 8.5% in 2025-26, supported by a 6.2% increase in harvested area and a 2.3% yield improvement to 5.8 tonnes per hectare. However, milling quality has declined, with unofficial estimates suggesting milling wheat now accounts for 55-60%, down from over 70% last season.

Barley production also saw a positive trend, increasing by 7.7% year on year due to a 2.7% larger harvested area and a 5% higher yield. These shifts indicate that Bulgarian farmers are adapting to climate changes by shifting to more drought-resistant crops. Nevertheless, the ongoing drought raises concerns about the country’s food security, particularly for corn, a critical component in livestock feed.

Experts warn that prolonged dry conditions could force Bulgaria to rely heavily on corn imports, impacting its economy and trade. The government may consider additional support measures for farmers, such as subsidies or irrigation programs. The corn harvest situation will serve as a significant indicator for the regional grain market, where Bulgaria has traditionally been a key supplier.

Tags: Bulgaria, corn, drought, crop forecast