Demand, prices support Mexico’s corn, sorghum, rice

Stronger demand and rising prices will drive increased production of corn, rice and sorghum in Mexico, while prolonged drought and weaker price expectations will lower wheat production in 2025-26, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Grain demand in 2025-26 will likely remain strong, supported by population growth and continued expansion in the cattle, swine, and poultry sectors. In the first quarter of 2025, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) reported a 6.7% expansion in Mexico’s agricultural sector, reflecting rising feed demand.

Mexico’s corn production is forecast to increase by 7% to 24.5 million tonnes, driven by higher expected local prices for white corn and reduced domestic white corn stocks.

Production for 2024-25 is estimated to decrease by 2% to 23.0 million tonnes, reflecting lower-than-average yields and constrained water availability in key producing regions, the FAS said.

Rice production in 2025-26 is forecast to increase by 4% to 258,000 tonnes, equivalent to 177,000 tonnes of milled rice. Sorghum production is also forecast up 4% percent to 4.4 million tonnes, driven by steady feed industry demand.

In comparison, wheat production is forecast to fall 36% to 1.7 million tonnes, driven by prolonged drought, record-low reservoir levels in Sonora and Sinaloa that limit irrigation, and weaker price expectations.

To offset reduced production, wheat imports are projected to rise 23% to 6.4 million tonnes. Exports are forecast to drop 50% to 50,000 tonnes, as lower durum wheat production is expected to be absorbed by domestic demand.

Overall, Mexico is expected to remain a major grain importer as domestic production remains insufficient to meet growing food and feed needs for the nation of 132 million people.

In addition to growing wheat imports, estimated up 23% to 6.4 million tonnes, Mexico is expected to import more rice and sorghum. Rice imports are estimated up 1% to 880,000 tonnes while sorghum imports are expected to increase 29% to 450,000 tonnes.

However, corn imports are expected to decline by 2% to 24.8 million tonnes, driven by stronger domestic production and increased use of yellow corn carryover stocks from record high 2024-25 imports.

Tags: rice, Mexico, sorghum