Crude palm oil prices in Malaysia to stay above $1,128/t in November — MPOC

Crude palm oil prices in Malaysia are expected to remain above MYR 4,600 ($1,128) per ton in November 2026, supported by stronger export demand, sustained biodiesel consumption and a seasonal decline in production. The forecast was released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC). According to the council, these factors are expected to support crude palm oil prices through the end of the year.

One of the main factors supporting prices will be an expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventories. Due to a seasonal slowdown in production, stocks are projected to decrease gradually from November 2026 through February 2027. MPOC believes this trend will provide further support to the market in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the decline in exports recorded in September is considered temporary, with shipments expected to recover significantly during October–December.

Additional market support could come from increased purchases by India and China, two of the world’s largest vegetable oil consumers. According to MPOC, these countries may increase palm oil imports in the coming months due to expected supply constraints for sunflower oil and soybean oil. This could intensify competition for Malaysian supplies and support export prices amid the seasonal production decline.

Demand from the biofuel sector also remains an important factor. Elevated energy prices make vegetable oils more attractive for biodiesel production and encourage higher biodiesel blending rates. Indonesia has a particularly significant impact on the market, as its expanding biodiesel programs support domestic palm oil consumption. MPOC expects sustained high energy prices to contribute to further growth in demand for this feedstock.

However, analysts also warn of risks to further price gains. The main downside factors include lower energy prices, which could weaken biodiesel demand, and weaker-than-expected vegetable oil consumption in the food industry. Inflation and economic uncertainty may also limit importers’ purchasing activity. As a result, the outlook for crude palm oil prices in late 2026 will depend on the balance between seasonal supply reductions, export demand and developments in global energy markets.

Tags: MPOC, prices, Crude palm oil, Malaysia